"As the antients had their Capitoline and their Olympian Jupiter, so we had our virgin of Winchester and our virgin of Walsingham: and as there were temples to the Capitoline Jupiter in other places, as well as on the Capitoline hill, and one at Athens in particular; so we had places dedicated to the virgin of Winchester, in other places as well as Winchester; and one at Oxford in particular. The society at Oxford (to which I am obliged more than I could easily express, for passing the best part of my life, in a most agreeable manner) was established before the light of the Reformation had begun to dawn on England; by one of the noblest patrons of learning, that ever was. As he was, in those times, bishop of Winchester, he founded a seminary there; and a college to be supplied with students from it, at Oxford. This college, at Oxford, was dedicated Sanctae Mariae Wintoniensi; and both of them are called, the two St. Mary-Winton colleges, on some occasions, to this day."

---Joseph Spence Polymetis (1747), p 48 note 7
In seventeenth-century Britain a change from one denomination to another threatened not just eternal damnation but damage to one's material condition in the present. This was especially true in Scotland where the identity of the Scottish Church was more contested than it was in England and the elite arguably broader and more fissured. In 1688 Walter Ogilvy, Lord Deskford, eldest son and heir of James Ogilvy, third earl of Findlater, converted to Catholicism from the (then episcopal) Church of Scotland. This is how his father warned his younger son James (later first earl of Seafield and eventually fourth earl of Findlater) about the danger his eldest son posssessed, and how they needed to rapidly exclude him from inheriting the family estates:

I cannot but desier you to remmeber to consult your bussines of the convayence of my esteat in your person; for although Walter be nou in my house, yett be his still frequenting the Popish chappell and continouing in odd and most unacountable actions, ther can be no good expected of him so ye need to be the mor circumspect in garding your selfe against his evell.

---The Correspondence of James First Earl of Seafield, pp 42-43

(Charles II appears in the userpic in the absence of his brother James VII and II, then reigning.)
Pope Francis... well, that is a new twist to an old guessing game; and shows what I know.

ETA: This is a sign of the shift in pontifical naming customs which has taken place since 1958. Between the late tenth century and up until Pius XII, it could be argued that names were chosen to demonstrate continuity with the early church, with variations depending on the times. In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, continuity with ancien regime Europe and the papal monarchy was important. Since John XXIII, naming choices have represented a shift towards emphasising the kind of ministry one might expect, rather than asserting political associations.
Very busy today, and I could have written a longer post on this subject, but given that I gave some thought to this last time round, briefly-researched thoughts on the name the next pope might take.

Leo XIV was favourite at bookmakers Paddy Power the last time I looked; it has associations with strong papal authority (especially Leo I, 440-461) and the marriage of evolving pastoral needs and conservative theology (Leo XIII, 1878-1903) which would probably appeal to many cardinals.

Gregory XVII would be a name evoking similar associations with papal authority, but also with the reforms of Gregory VII in the eleventh century. The name could be reclaimed from associations with the reactionary nineteenth-century pontiff Gregory XVI.

Nicholas VI appeals to me as bringing a papal name neglected since the fifteenth century back into use. As well as religious orthodoxy (the career of St Nicholas of Myra), generosity and present-giving (St Nicholas's subsequent emergence as Santa Claus) the name has associations with papal authority, given the drive of Nicholas I (858-867) for a monarchical authoritative papacy in the ninth century, and the establishment of the college of cardinals as the electoral body for the papacy in the eleventh century under Nicholas II (1058-1061).

Eugene V might suggest compromise given the openness to a conciliar approach promised by the last pope to bear that name, Eugene IV (1431-1447), but his inconsistent ways of keeping that promise led to chaos in church and the Papal State.

Clement XV would revive an old standby associated with Rome and the early church (Clement I, c.91-c.101, as well as the later church father St Clement of Alexandria) and with eleventh-century reform (Clement II, 1046-47) as well as the establishment of Catholicism on the American continent (Clement VII, 1523-34). The papacy of Clement XIV (1769-74) is associated with the shame of his suppression of the Jesuits, though at the time it was widely understood as a welcome rapprochement with the leaders of the European laity, something which some commentators think is necessary today.

An unlikely name which crossed my mind when looking at the Bohemian origins of Christoph Schoenborn was Sergius V, as Sergius II was pope when the leaders of the Czechs volunteered for baptism in the 840s. However, this action had nothing to do with the papacy, which was going through one of its weaker phases of influence over the western church at the time, and the subsequent popes Sergius III and Sergius IV were both mired in the decadence and corruption of Roman politics, which critics of the Vatican might think too appropriate in all the wrong ways. Given that in francophone countries the next pope Sergius would be known as Serge V, this would lead to numerous mash-ups of the hapless pontiff blessing away with Serge Gainsbourg and Jane Birkin breathlessly performing 'Je t'aime...moi non plus' on the soundtrack, which I suspect would not be wanted.


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